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Business Analytics: Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing


1. The Idea Behind Exponential Smoothing
Self-correcting forecasts
From error correction to smoothing
Exponentially declining influence of observations
Identify the appropriate baseline

2. The Forecasting Equation
Dissect the error correction form
Dissect the smoothing form
Exponential smoothing tool
Initialize the forecasts

3. Measuring Forecast Accuracy
The absolute deviation approach
The least squares approach

4. Optimizing Forecasts
Set up the smoothing formula for Solver
Solution in R

Next steps

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